Archive forSeptember, 2014

UK consumer confidence slips in September: Gfk

Gfk’s survey revealed the consumer confidence index fell to -1 in September, retreating from +1 in August. The sentiment weakened as better economic data did not translate into an improved standard of living or wage hike.

Geneva’s annual report indicates probable crisis

As per Financial Times, the report by International Centre for Monetary and Banking Studies, expected to release soon, cautions against another crisis owing to high debt and persistently slowing growth in various economies. The report records the escalating public sector debt in developed countries and private debt in emerging markets.

Growth in Japan’s core CPI misses expectations

The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Japan reported core consumer price inflation (CPI) increased 3.1% y-o-y in August vis-à-vis 3.3% in July and the expectation of 3.2%. Overall inflation was up 0.2% m-o-m and 3.3% y-o-y.

Three Fed presidents insist tolerance on interest rates

Eyeing low inflation and slower growth, Fed presidents from New York, Minneapolis and Chicago warned against premature tightening of the monetary policy. The support came just a day after the Fed chair Janet Yellen’s comments of a sooner-than-expected rate hike.

UK mortgage approvals decline unexpectedly in August

UK mortgage approvals fell to 41,588 in August from 42,715 in July, British Bankers’ Association said yesterday. However, gross mortgage borrowing rose to £11.1bn from £10.9bn last month.

Chinese manufacturing PMI beats expectations

Markit’s preliminary PMI reading signalled a rebound in China’s manufacturing sector. The PMI came in at 50.5 in September, well above 50.2 in August and the expectation of 50.0. New domestic and export orders, work backlogs and purchase quantity increased at a faster pace.

GDP leaders vow co-operation for global growth

The G20 finance officials met in Australia to pledge for robust growth in the world economy. The officials said the combined economic output of member countries should rise at least 2% above the current estimated reading for 2018, driven by structural measures and infrastructure spending.

Scotland votes ‘No’ to independence from UK

Scotland will remain part of the UK after voters reject independence and First Minister Alex Salmond admits defeat.

Fed to maintain low rates for ‘considerable time’

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve said rates are likely to remain unchanged for a ‘considerable time’ after the conclusion of the bond buying programme as it ponders cautiously over the jobs situation and inflation data. The central bank’s monthly asset purchases have been reduced to US$15bn, with the stimulus programme expected to end in October.

PBoC official reveals US$81.0bn stimulus

People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is expected to grant a US$81bn or ¥500bn incentive to the country’s five biggest banks in an attempt to revive the economy. The People’s Bank of China plans to inject ¥100bn in each of the five banks for a three-month period. This news is not confirmed by the PBoC yet.

Barry Gibb on, 16th September 2014

Beaufort research analyst, Barry Gibb speaking about Smith & Nephew (SN..L), Kingfisher (KGF.L), Fox Marble Holdings (FOX.L) and Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO.L) on (Source: – 16/09/2014

Scotland and the Independence Referendum

If there is a ‘Yes’ Vote on Thursday there are a number of worries about British Companies domiciled in Scotland and a number of these Companies have commented about moving their HQs to England. Indeed, a high profile former deputy leader of the Scottish National Party has indicated that banks face a ‘day of reckoning’, adding that the oil major BP (BP..L) would need ‘to learn the meaning of nationalisation in part or in whole’, after a Yes vote. The Yes Campaign has allegedly distanced themselves from his comments.

China’s FDI hits four-year low

Today, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce reported inbound investment in the country declined 14% y-o-y to US$7.2bn in August, after plunging 17% in July. With this, China’s inbound FDI during the first eight months of 2014 is down 1.8% y-o-y to US$78.3bn.

UK house prices rise 0.9% in September

Today, data from Rightmove indicated that the average asking price for a house in the UK increased 0.9% m-o-m to £264,875 in September after sliding 2.9% in August. On y-o-y basis, prices jumped 7.9% after advancing 5.3% in the preceding month. House prices in East Anglia and London rose 3.7% and 0.9%, respectively, while that in West Midlands and Wales fell 1.8% and 1.6%, respectively.

Harry Stevenson on, 12th September 2014

Beaufort research analyst, Harry Stevenson speaking about Falkland Island exploration stocks including Rockhopper Exploration (RKH.L), Argos Resources (ARG.L), Borders & Southern Petroleum (BOR.L), Falkland Islands Holdings (FKL.L), Falkland Oil & Gas (FOGL.L) and Premier Oil (PMO.L) on (Source: – 12/09/2014

US budget deficit narrows to US$129bn in August

Data released by the US Treasury Department showed the country’s budget deficit narrowed 13% y-o-y to US$129bn in August. On year-to-date basis (from October to August), the deficit was down 22% to US$589bn, largely led by higher tax receipts.

UK house price balance falls in August

Today, survey results from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) revealed the UK house price balance dropped to 40% in August, the lowest level since August 2013. The reading came in much below the forecast of 47%. The house price balance for July was also revised down to 48% from the originally reported 49%.

Japan’s machine orders rise 3.5% in July

The Japanese Cabinet Office reported core machine orders rose by 3.5% m-o-m to ¥771.7bn in July, missing the expectation of 4% gain. Machine orders had increased 8.8% in June. Manufacturing orders surged 20.3% to ¥363.9bn, while non-manufacturing orders decreased 4.3% to ¥425.0bn during the month.

UK retail sales rise 1.3% in August

The British Retail Consortium reported that like-for-like (LFL) retail sales increased 1.3% y-o-y in August, after declining 0.3% y-o-y in July. Total sales rose 2.7% y-o-y compared with 3.6% y-o-y in the previous month.

China’s trade surplus at record high

The Chinese Customs Office declared the trade surplus widened to US$49.8bn in August from US$47.3bn in July. Exports grew 9.4% y-o-y, while imports fell 2.4% y-o-y.

ECB downgrades growth forecast

The ECB lowered its 2014 economic growth forecast for the Eurozone to 0.9% from 1% in June. The agency also cut the 2015 growth estimate to 1.6% from 1.7%.

US on track for economic recovery: Fed

As per the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, the US economy expanded at a ‘moderate to modest’ rate over the summer, aided by strong growth across the auto and banking industry. On the consumer spending front, most of the total 12 Fed districts reported growth.

UK shop price decline moderates in August

As per the data released by the British Retail Consortium, the UK shop prices dropped 1.6% y-o-y in August after sliding 1.9% in July. Markets were expecting the prices to fall just 0.2%. In August, food prices edged up 0.3%, maintaining the pace from July.

Record wage hike in Japan still lags behind inflation rate

Today, Japan’s Labor Ministry revealed the growth in wages in July is the highest since 1997. On y-o-y basis, average monthly earnings rose 2.6% vis-à-vis 1% in June. However, the wage hike is still below the consumer price inflation (excluding fresh food) of 3.3% for the same period. Inflation-adjusted pay declined 1.4% in July.

China’s factory activity records marginal expansion in August

A survey by Markit Economics and HSBC Bank revealed that the final manufacturing PMI for China dipped to 50.2 in August from the flash forecast of 50.3, and July’s 17-month high of 51.7, thus recording a slower expansion than initially estimated. Economists were expecting the PMI to remain unchanged from the preliminary estimate.