Archive forFebruary, 2016

US economy expands faster than estimates in Q4 2015

As per the US Commerce Department, the US economy grew at an annualized pace of 1% in Q4 2015 compared with the initial estimate of 0.7%. The number was revised up largely led by higher-than-expected contribution from inventories. Moreover, consumer spending, which accounts for more than 67% of the US economic activity, increased 2% in Q4 2015 from the earlier estimate of 2.2%.

Barry Gibb Interview on Vox Markets – 25/02/2016

Barry Gibb of Beaufort Securities talks about the global economy, Brexit, Oil and the reason why he’s bullish on housebuilders.

UK’s GDP growth accelerates in Q4 2015

As per the data from the Office for National Statistics, the UK’s GDP expanded 0.5% q-o-q in Q4 2015 after 0.4% growth in Q3 2015, marking the 12th consecutive quarter of growth. On a y-o-y basis, GDP expanded 1.9% in Q4 2015, in line with initial estimates. The expansion in GDP was led by a 0.7% q-o-q increase in household spending and a similar growth in the services sector. In 2015, the UK’s economy expanded 2.2% compared with 2.9% in 2014.

Britain registers for EU membership deal at UN

Britain’s UN Ambassador Matthew Rycroft informed that he has registered Britain for membership in the European Union (EU) at the United Nations. This follows an agreement between Prime Minister Cameron and EU leaders on a package of measures to keep Britain in the EU. However, the membership would be finalised only after the referendum on 23rd June 2016.

Steady recovery witnessed in household spending in UK

As per data from the Office for National Statistics, the disposable income available to households in the UK stood at £25,700 during 2014–15, £1,500 higher than the lows of 2012–13. Retired households’ income increased 7.7%, recording a rise of £1,500, between 2007–08 and 2014–15. However, non-retired households’ disposable income was 3.1% or £900 lower than the levels of 2007–08, i.e., prior to the financial crisis.

IEA anticipates oil prices to recover from 2017

The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects oil prices to recover from 2017. The agency estimates global oil supply to increase 4.1 million barrels of oil per day between 2015 and 2021, down from a rise of 11 million barrels of oil per day between 2009 and 2015. Moreover, the IEA anticipates investments in oil exploration and production to fall 17% in 2016 after declining 24% in 2015.

Retail sales in UK rise in January

As per the Office for National Statistics, retail sales in the UK increased 2.3% m-o-m in January 2016, the highest monthly gain since December 2013, after a 1.3% decrease in December 2015. On a y-o-y basis, sales rose 5.0% following a 1.8% surge in December 2015. The improvement was ascribed to price cuts after Christmas, which led to higher demand for clothing and computers.

OECD cuts global growth forecast for 2016

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has downgraded the global forecast for 2016 and 2017 to 3% and 3.3% from the earlier estimates of 3.3% and 3.6%, respectively. Moreover, the OECD has cut growth forecasts for major economies, including the Eurozone, the UK and the US. The organisation has urged world leaders to urgently adopt a collective policy to accelerate growth and reduce financial risks.

Japan’s exports fall for fourth consecutive month

As per data from Japan’s Ministry of Finance, the country’s exports fell 12.9% y-o-y to ¥5.35trln. This marked the fourth consecutive month of decrease, the most since 2009. The decline was primarily due to an 18% drop in exports to China, Japan’s largest trading partner. Similarly, imports fell 18% y-o-y to ¥5.99trln, with the trade balance recording a deficit of ¥645.9bn.

UK inflation reaches one-year high in January 2016

As per the Office for National Statistics, consumer price inflation edged up to 0.3% in January 2016, highest since January 2015. The agency stated the rise was due to smaller falls in food and fuel prices, and a modest rise in the prices of clothes. However, consumer price inflation dropped 0.8% m-o-m due to Christmas discounts and drop in airfares.

Eurozone trade surplus dips in December

As per data released by Eurostat, the Eurozone’s trade surplus narrowed to €21bn in December 2015 from €22.6bn in November. This is mainly ascribed to a 0.3% m-o-m drop in exports to €170bn and a 0.8% increase in imports to €149bn. For full-year 2015, the trade surplus surged to €64.2bn from €13.3bn in 2014, with imports and exports rising 2% and 5%, respectively.

UK asking house prices jump in February: Rightmove

As per property tracking website Rightmove, the asking price per home in the UK rose 2.9% m-o-m to £299,287 in February 2016, following a 0.5% increase in January. On y-o-y basis, house prices jumped 7.3%, after a 6.5% rise in the previous month. The agency stated increase in demand and fairly static supply as reasons for the rise in prices.

IMF chief Christine Lagarde set for second term

IMF head Christine Lagarde has been nominated for a second five-year term. IMF’s board stated that only Mrs Lagarde has been nominated for the post, and it would try to finish the selection process at the earliest. Mrs Lagarde has received support from the UK, Germany, China, and France, among other countries. She has led the agency through the European debt crisis and during global economic stagnation.

Barry Gibb Interview on Vox Markets – 10/02/2016

Beaufort Securities research analyst Barry Gibb talks about the markets, the fed, oil, China, IPO’s plus focuses in on Poundland (PLND) and HSS Hire (HSS)

House price balance in UK remains steady in January 2016

As per the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, the monthly house price balance in the UK remained flat at +49 in January 2016, following a similar reading in December 2015. Additionally, the agency expects house prices to rise over the next 12 months.

UK’s trade deficit widens in fourth quarter

As per data from the Office for National Statistics, the UK’s trade deficit widened to £10.4bn in Q4 2015 from £8.6bn in Q3 2015, marking the largest trade gap since the beginning of 2015. The overall deficit in 2015 increased £0.3bn to £34.7bn. Moreover, Chancellor George Osborne warned that the UK’s economy is facing a series of challenges in 2016, including slowdown in emerging economies, falling oil prices and tumbling stock markets.

UK retail sales up in January 2016: BRC

According to the British Retail Consortium (BRC), retail spending in the UK grew 3.3% y-o-y in January 2016, compared with a 1.0% increase in December, the highest rise in four months. On a like-for-like basis, sales jumped 2.6% in January after a 0.1% gain in December. The rise in sales was led by an increase in furniture and home appliance sales. Furthermore, discounts during the New Year season boosted clothing and footwear sales.

China’s foreign currency reserves fall in January

As per a report by the People’s Bank of China, the country’s foreign currency reserves declined US$99.5bn to US$3.23trln in January 2016, the lowest since 2012. The fall in reserves could lead to rapid devaluation of the country’s currency and destabilise the economy.

Barry Gibb Interview on Vox Markets – 04/02/2016

Barry Gibb research analyst at Beaufort Securities talks about: the macro, upcoming IPO’s and MySquar (MYSQ)

BoE maintains bank rates at record low level

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England (BoE) has decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, citing ‘muted growth in world prices’ and low inflation in the near term. The bank expects the rate to remain unchanged until August 2018.

BoE plans to keep markets stable in case of Brexit

Yesterday, the Bank of England (BoE)’s Deputy Governor Andrew Bailey asserted that the first priority of the bank would be to maintain the stability of the financial markets and other macroeconomic fundamentals if the referendum vote (expected in June 2016) favours the exit of the UK from the EU. Moreover, he pointed towards proposals to make it difficult for the Eurozone countries to impose rules on the UK’s financial sector.

UK shop prices fall in January 2016: BRC

According to the British Retail Consortium, shop prices in the UK fell 1.8% y-o-y in January 2016, compared with a 2.0% drop in December 2015, marking the 33rd month of falling shop prices. The decline was led by a 3% y-o-y drop in non-food prices, led by clothing, footwear, books, DIY, stationery and home entertainment.

UK’s manufacturing growth accelerates in January 2016

As per Markit, the UK’s manufacturing PMI rose to 52.9 in January 2016 from 52.1 in December 2015, the highest in three months. The improvement was driven by sharp growth in output, rising to a 19-month high in January, and an increase in domestic orders.

Barry Gibb Interview on Vox Markets – 29/01/2016

Barry Gibb research analyst at Beaufort Securities talks about: the markets, Oil, cheap IPO’s including Clydesdale Bank, Shield Therapeutics, Countryside Properties, CMC Markets, plus AIM stocks: Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO) & Motif Bio (MTBF).

China manufacturing sector slows for sixth consecutive month

According to the government’s latest factory survey, the Purchasing Managers’ Index in China fell to 49.4 (lowest since August 2012) in January 2016 from 49.7 in December 2015, marking the sixth consecutive month of decrease. The slowdown in China’s manufacturing sector is a major concern for investors worldwide, as the country is one of the main drivers of the global economy.